Still Below $6500 As Market Recovers

From the recent low to around $190B on August 14. the cryptocurrency market cap evaluation has been steadily recovering and is currently at around $216B which is 26 billion dollar recovery in 6 days. Even though the market recovers the price of Bitcoin has been hovering around the same levels failing to break the $6500 resistance level.

As you can see from August 10 when the price of Bitcoin fell from $6711 to $6277 the price hasn’t gone much further. Actually, the $6500 resistance is merely psychological level, true resistance is at the $6876 which can be seen more clearly if we zoom out this daily chart. As the price of Bitcoin hasn’t still gone above the mentioned resistance levels we are going to see how much further can the market recover and how much further can the price of Bitcoin go up with it.

Technical Analysis

First, let’s remind ourselves on the current market context. 

As you can see from the global chart the evaluation is currently stuck below the resistance at $250B and the support at $194B. As the evaluation broke the resistance and found some temporary support I am expecting it to go up from here and retests that resistance before continuing down to the next support level at around $150B which is a stronger support level.

If the market recovers by another 34 billion dollars from the evaluation levels we are seeing currently that will surely impact the price of Bitcoin the most as it’s market dominance is over 50%. But to see how far can it go we are going to check some of the significant resistance levels.

Looking at the daily chart we can see that the price is below the $6876 which is a significant resistance and the first level that held the price after the bubble popped. The next significant level is the resistance from the triangle in which the price has been from 16 of January and could be from here to the $7750.

Zooming into the 4-hour chart we can see that on August 14 when the market was at its lowest the price of Bitcoin went to $5856 which is the higher low from the last one at $5767 as the Bitcoin dominance increased amid this recovery which is 9.67% increase to the current price levels.

On August 14. Bitcoins market cap was 103,3 billion dollars and now is $111,6 billion dollars which means that out of the 26 billion increase in total only $8B went into Bitcoin. So if we project the expected 34 billion increase on to Bitcoins price we are looking at an increase of 10 billion more which would lead the price to around $7000.

Looking at the hourly chart we can see that the projected target fits with the minor support level which now serves as resistance. This would lead to the correlation between resistance retest on the global chart with the Bitcoin chart resistance retest.

Market sentiment

Bitcoin’s technical indicators are signaling a buy up to the 4-hour chart but daily and weekly are signaling a sell.

This fits perfectly with my Elliott Wave projection from the beginning of June. As you can see the triangle bounces I’ve labeled as a WXYXZ correction after which I have projected that the price would go down to the vicinity of the $4700 support level. But as the price doesn’t go in a straight line we are likely seeing a recovery B wave which usually ends on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level that matches the projected target thus reconfirming it once again.

We will see what happens in the following days but the chart still looks bearish on the higher time frames which is why I am still expecting the price of Bitcoin to go lower from here.

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