Same Range, Healthy But Fragile

Over the past day, Bitcoin had been trading between $3800 – $4000. As stated on our yesterday’s analysis:

“For the shorter-term, we might see Bitcoin getting closer to the $4000 again, as the 4-hour chart’s Stochastic RSI is about to cross over on the oversold area.”

Bitcoin did revisit the $4000 zone, failing to breach the $4050 – $4100 resistance. The above is a critical level for a chance to re-test prior highs, especially around the $4400 – $4500 area (keep on reading).

Over the past hours, Bitcoin lost momentum, to re-test $3900 prior support. As mentioned before, the 38.2% Fib level of the last bullish move lies around $3800. This was the low of the previous two daily candles. As long as Bitcoin keeps its head above that Fib level, BTC could aim for higher targets.

Looking at the 1-day & 4-hour charts

As of now, Bitcoin found support upon the mid-term descending line (marked orange on the 4-hour chart), along with the 50 and 100 days moving average lines (of the hourly chart, not attached). This seems to be a strong support level.In case of breaking down the above support, the next support level is $3850, before the 200 days moving average (4-hour chart, marked in light green) at $3780 – $3800 area. Behind, support lies at $3700 and $3600 areas.As mentioned yesterday, the correction is so far healthy (as long as Bitcoin’s price stays above $3800). However, the daily chart’s Stochastic RSI oscillator had crossed over at the overbought level. This could trigger a deeper correction in the coming days. Better watch the RSI level closely.From the bull side, resistance lies at $4050 – $4100, $4200, and $4500 (along with the daily chart’s 50-days moving average line – marked white on the chart).As a reminder: The $4500 level, along with the daily chart’s MA-50, is a crucial level for a possible change of the longer-term bearish momentum.The trading volume is relatively low, as compared to the past days. This could be because of the weekend and holidays.BitFinex’s open short positions had decreased to 33.5K BTC. Remember; when shorts are at their peak anticipate a short squeeze. When shorts are at the bottom, expect a long squeeze.

BTC/USD BitStamp 4-Hour chart

BTC/USD BitStamp 1-Day chart


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