Range trading occurs when the price of an asset consistently trades inside the confines of a high and low price. The highs and lows act as resistance and support, respectively. The most common pattern that gets created whenever the price trades in a range is the horizontal channel.
For the price to move outside of this trading range, momentum building is required.
When the price of an asset moves above the resistance of the range, a breakout occurs. A breakdown occurs when the opposite happens.
Usually, the strength of the breakout/breakdown is positively correlated with the amount of time the price has traded inside a range.
Full-time trader @CryptoMichNL suggested that we will trade inside a range without significant volatility until the end of the month, before eventually breaking upwards towards $10,000 and above.
That was the final push.
Continue the ranging for now. pic.twitter.com/vc4wNl5PY0
— Crypto Michaël (@CryptoMichNL) October 11, 2019
The trader has outlined a descending wedge and several resistance and support areas.
In his projection of future price movement, he is assuming that we will trade inside this descending wedge for the rest of the month before breaking out in November.
We also agree with the hypothesis that BTC is trading inside a wedge, as BeInCrypto has discussed here.
The Bitcoin price has been trading inside this descending wedge for nearly 108 days.
As we stated earlier, a breakout/breakdown after trading inside a range for such a long period is very formidable in the majority of the cases.
One interesting thing we want to point out is the current wave count. We believe that the price will break out from the wedge after finishing a 3-3-5 correction.
Until now, we have had finished the 3-3 portion of the correction, which is outlined in the image above by the two white A-B-C lines.
Currently, we seem to be finishing another five-wave correction. We believe this is the case since 3-3-x corrections either finish in five waves or in a triangle. Since the triangle has been invalidated, we should have a five-wave correction.
Therefore, there lies our only difference with the prediction by @cryptomitchNL.
We believe that BTC will make a slightly lower low around $7000 before breaking out.
There are two reasons why we choose $7000 as the likely end of the fifth wave:
The first one is the support area, which is found between $7000-$7100.
The second one if the fact that wave three has been smaller than wave one.
The dashed blue line is the length of wave one projected onto wave three. As we can see, wave one is slightly longer.
Elliot wave theory dictates that wave three cannot be the shortest one out of waves 1-3-5.
Therefore, this makes it mandatory that we have a short wave 5, which should end around $7000.
Do you think BTC will eventually break out from the wedge? Do you think it has reached its low, or will it decrease to $7000? Drop your thoughts in the comments below.
Disclaimer: This article is not trading advice and should not be construed as such. Always consult a trained financial professional before investing in cryptocurrencies, as the market is particularly volatile.
Images are courtesy of Shutterstock, TradingView.